TEHRAN - Farhang Jahanpour, a former senior research fellow at Harvard University, believes that certain regional and global powers are using terrorism as a tool to achieve their “geopolitical goals”.

In an exclusive interview with the Tehran Times, Jahanpour also says, “Old alliances are falling apart and new alliances are being formed.”

Following is the text of the interview:

Q: There have been many unpredictable developments in the Middle East during the past few months. They have included tense relations between Turkey and Russia followed by reconciliation, the failed coup in Turkey followed by a cooling of relations with the United States, and of course the continuing conflicts in Syria and Yemen. How do you assess the current situation in the Middle East?

A: The situation in the Middle East was complex enough, but the latest developments that you have referred to have made the situation even more complex. In fact, it can be argued that since the end of the First World War the situation in the Middle East has never been as complex or as critical as it is today. Old alliances are falling apart and new alliances are being formed. Added to this mix is the scourge of terrorism that is cynically used by some global and regional powers as a means of achieving geopolitical goals.

Let us look at some of these developments in more detail. Before the start of the so-called “Arab Spring”, some old military and dynastic regimes, including some hereditary presidents, had remained in power in the Arab Middle East for decades. Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Hosni Mubarak, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, Hafiz al-Asad and his son Bashar al-Asad, and Ali Abdullah Saleh ruled as virtual dictators over Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen respectively. There were also a number of tribal chieftains and warlords that later on formed hereditary monarchies and adopted the titles of Emirs or kings. Most of them became extremely wealthy as the result of the discovery of oil or gas in their countries, which they used as personal or family assets.

The Arab Spring produced violent revolutions that swept away most Arab dictators. Nervous monarchies tried to find some excuses to divert the attention of their populations from their democratic demands and to prevent their own downfall. Instead of embracing democratic change and reform, they have fanned the flames of religious sectarianism, resulting in vicious terrorist groups that are now endangering their own survival. These upheavals have also resulted in major shifts in the geopolitical map of the Middle East and have also involved Western and Eastern powers in incoherent and shifting alliances with local powers, seemingly without any long-term strategic outlook.

“There has been a serious divergence in Turkish and American policies towards Syria.”

Meanwhile, only Iran and Turkey, heirs to powerful empires, and the only two countries that had not been colonized and that had a tradition of political reform and democracy going back to the end of the nineteenth century, have remained relatively unscathed by the latest upheavals.

Q: The Turkish PM has announced that Russia can use Incirlik Air Base if necessary. Doesn't this harm Turkey's strategic partnership with NATO?

A: Before the invasion of Iraq in 2003, Turkey was firmly an ally of the West and a key member of NATO. Under Prime Minister and later President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his government’s policy of zero tension with its neighbours, Turkey experienced a period of unprecedented economic growth. However, after Turkey’s decision to side with the anti-government forces in Syria, including some pro-Al Qaeda forces such as the al-Nusra Front, Turkey itself became a target of many terrorist attacks.

The failed coup in Turkey has complicated U.S.-Turkish relations. Some Turkish officials have accused the United States of involvement in the coup, and Labour Minister Suleyman Soylu publicly charged the United States with responsibility for the coup. Although there is no evidence of U.S. involvement in the coup, it is nevertheless true, that contrary to Iran that stood with President Erdogan and condemned the coup while it was still in progress, Western leaders were rather slow and hesitant in condemning it.

President Erdogan has openly accused Fethullah Gulen who lives in the United States and his extensive network in Turkey of having organized the coup, and he has called for Gulen’s extradition to Turkey. Even before the coup attempt, President Erdogan had patched up his ties with Russia, but the coup has pushed Erdogan closer to President Vladimir Putin of Russia. This explains the recent overtures to Russia about the use of Incirlik Airbase by the Russians, while at the same time stopping the flight of American fighter planes from that base.

Farhang Jahanpour says certain regional and global powers use terrorism as a means to achieve their ‘geopolitical goals’

Some analysts have even argued that the failed coup has forced Turkey to revise its alliances and to collaborate with Iran, Iraq and Russia over Syria. There have been clear signs that Turkey has softened its stance towards the Syrian president. Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim has said that President Bashar Assad can remain in power at least during the transition period. China has also declared its interest in getting involved in the war against the terrorists in Syria. So, there have been some major changes in relations between various states in the region and beyond.

Q: Had there been any coordination between Ankara and Washington and Moscow before Turkey's military presence in Jarablus?

A: Not only had there not been any coordination between Ankara and Washington prior to Turkey’s military operation in Jarablus, Turkey moved against the forces that America had supported. Although ostensibly fighting on the same side as the Western coalition against the Syrian government, the United States and Turkey were backing different groups in Syria. While the United States has for many years been funding, organizing and training the so-called Free Syrian Army that has performed miserably in Syria, Turkey had provided a conduit for Al Qaeda-affiliated groups, such as Al-Nusra Front, that had also been supported by Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states. While the United States has been trying to fight against DAESH, Turkey has been more concerned with the U.S.-backed Kurdish forces that have been successful in purging most of the Kurdish areas in Syria of DAESH.

The Arab Spring produced violent revolutions that swept away most Arab dictators. Nervous monarchies tried to find some excuses to divert the attention of their populations from their democratic demands and to prevent their own downfall. Instead of embracing democratic change and reform, they have fanned the flames of religious sectarianism, resulting in vicious terrorist groups that are now endangering their own survival.

Starting on 24th August, Turkish tanks and special forces crossed into Syria and took Jarablus almost without any fighting. Turkey is pursuing two goals by its recent actions in Syria, one is to push DAESH forces away from the Turkish borders, while also preventing Kurdish forces from joining up in a continuous belt of territory in Turkey’s southern border that would link a Kurdish-dominated belt stretching from Iraqi Kurdistan through Syria to the Mediterranean. Turkey considers all Kurdish forces as terrorists aligned to the PKK, and does not want a Kurdish belt along the entire 910-kilometer Turkish-Syrian border that would block the link between Turkey and anti-Syrian forces in Syria, and that would further encourage Kurdish groups to secede from Turkey.

During his visit to Turkey, Vice-President Biden tried to show solidarity with Turkey in its attack on Jarablus, saying that Kurdish forces would lose American support if they did not withdraw to the east of the Euphrates River, as Turkey had demanded. He said: “We have made it absolutely clear ... that they must move back across the river.” He added: “They cannot, will not, and under no circumstances get American support if they do not keep that commitment. Period.”

However, as Turkey has pushed further against the Kurdish forces in Syria, American officials have expressed their opposition to those moves. The American special envoy on Syria, Brett McGurk, has openly condemned those attacks, stating “We want to make clear that we find these clashes -- in areas where ISIL is not located -- unacceptable and a source of deep concern.” Turkey would like to establish an IS-free zone, some 70 miles long and 30 miles deep, on the Syrian side of the border. Therefore, there has been a serious divergence in Turkish and American policies towards Syria.

Meanwhile, while it is important to make sure that military coups do not succeed and do not subvert Turkish democracy, it is equally important to ensure that the measures that are taken against the coup plotters do not go too far and do not undermine democratic principles in Turkey. While the plotters deserve to be dealt with in accordance with the law, opposition voices must also be heard. Turkey’s lasting stability requires the involvement of all political parties that are prepared to take part in democratic opposition to the government, without resorting to force. At the same time, Turkey’s future stability is dependent upon reconciliation with its large Kurdish minority. It was unfortunate that the pro-Kurdish political party, HDP or People’s Democratic Party, was not included in the post-coup alliance of political parties.

The present situation provides an opportunity for Iran and Turkey as two long-lasting friends and allies to get closer together and to form a common policy towards Syria. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif travelled to Ankara shortly after the coup and declared Iran’s solidarity with the Turkish government, and there are some reports that President Erdogan will visit Iran shortly. These contacts can lay the grounds for finding a common solution to the Syrian conflict, putting an end to the unspeakable suffering of the Syrian people.

PA/PA